{"tool":{"slug":"fire-number","name":"FIRE number calculator","version":"2026-08-22","canonicalUrl":"https://carlo.finance/tools/fire-number","jsonUrl":"https://carlo.finance/tools/fire-number.json","pageUrl":"https://carlo.finance/tools/fire-number","parameters":[{"key":"spending","label":"Annual spending in retirement","unit":"usd-per-year","min":0,"max":2000000,"default":60000,"sourceId":null,"help":"What a year costs you once you stop working, in today's dollars. This is the input the whole number is built on; the default is an example, not a statistic."},{"key":"swr","label":"Withdrawal rate","unit":"percent","min":1,"max":10,"default":4,"sourceId":"trinity-1998","help":"The share of the portfolio you plan to take in the first year, raised with inflation after that. This is your choice about risk, not a fact: a lower rate means a larger number and more margin, a higher rate a smaller number and less."},{"key":"balance","label":"Invested today","unit":"usd","min":0,"max":100000000,"default":100000,"sourceId":null,"help":"What you already have invested toward this. Home equity you plan to live in is not part of it."},{"key":"saving","label":"Saved each month","unit":"usd-per-month","min":0,"max":1000000,"default":3000,"sourceId":null,"help":"What you add every month, treated as arriving at the end of the month."},{"key":"rate","label":"Real return","unit":"percent","min":0,"max":12,"default":5,"sourceId":null,"help":"Growth after inflation, so the target stays in today's dollars. This is an assumption you choose, not a forecast; run it low and high and look at the spread."},{"key":"step","label":"Extra saving to price","unit":"usd-per-month","min":0,"max":50000,"default":500,"sourceId":null,"help":"How much more a month to price against the wait, so you can see what one raise or one cut buys."},{"key":"age","label":"Your age","unit":"count","min":18,"max":90,"default":32,"sourceId":null,"integer":true,"help":"Used only to report the age you reach the number and how many years sit between that and Medicare at 65."}]},"inputs":{"spending":60000,"swr":4,"balance":100000,"saving":3000,"rate":5,"step":500,"age":32},"result":{"target":1500000,"multiple":25,"firstYearWithdrawal":60000,"monthlyIncome":5000,"gap":1400000,"monthsToTarget":241.91,"yearsToTarget":20.16,"ageAtTarget":52.16,"alreadyThere":false,"fromBalance":100000,"fromContributions":725715.71,"fromGrowth":674284.29,"yearsSavedByStep":1.71,"yearsAtStep":18.45,"healthcareGapYears":12.84,"ladder":[{"swr":3,"multiple":33.33,"target":2000000,"years":24.29,"success30y":100},{"swr":3.5,"multiple":28.57,"target":1714285.71,"years":22.03,"success30y":null},{"swr":4,"multiple":25,"target":1500000,"years":20.16,"success30y":98},{"swr":5,"multiple":20,"target":1200000,"years":17.21,"success30y":83}],"savingsRateRows":[{"savingsRate":10,"years":50.93},{"savingsRate":15,"years":42.43},{"savingsRate":20,"years":36.34},{"savingsRate":25,"years":31.57},{"savingsRate":30,"years":27.64},{"savingsRate":40,"years":21.35},{"savingsRate":50,"years":16.37},{"savingsRate":60,"years":12.22},{"savingsRate":70,"years":8.63}],"yearly":[{"year":1,"contributed":36000,"growth":5817.73,"balance":141817.73,"reached":false},{"year":2,"contributed":72000,"growth":13726.35,"balance":185726.35,"reached":false},{"year":3,"contributed":108000,"growth":23830.4,"balance":231830.4,"reached":false},{"year":4,"contributed":144000,"growth":36239.65,"balance":280239.65,"reached":false},{"year":5,"contributed":180000,"growth":51069.37,"balance":331069.37,"reached":false},{"year":6,"contributed":216000,"growth":68440.57,"balance":384440.57,"reached":false},{"year":7,"contributed":252000,"growth":88480.33,"balance":440480.33,"reached":false},{"year":8,"contributed":288000,"growth":111322.08,"balance":499322.08,"reached":false},{"year":9,"contributed":324000,"growth":137105.92,"balance":561105.92,"reached":false},{"year":10,"contributed":360000,"growth":165978.95,"balance":625978.95,"reached":false},{"year":11,"contributed":396000,"growth":198095.63,"balance":694095.63,"reached":false},{"year":12,"contributed":432000,"growth":233618.14,"balance":765618.14,"reached":false},{"year":13,"contributed":468000,"growth":272716.78,"balance":840716.78,"reached":false},{"year":14,"contributed":504000,"growth":315570.35,"balance":919570.35,"reached":false},{"year":15,"contributed":540000,"growth":362366.6,"balance":1002366.6,"reached":false},{"year":16,"contributed":576000,"growth":413302.66,"balance":1089302.66,"reached":false},{"year":17,"contributed":612000,"growth":468585.53,"balance":1180585.53,"reached":false},{"year":18,"contributed":648000,"growth":528432.54,"balance":1276432.54,"reached":false},{"year":19,"contributed":684000,"growth":593071.9,"balance":1377071.9,"reached":false},{"year":20,"contributed":720000,"growth":662743.23,"balance":1482743.23,"reached":false},{"year":21,"contributed":756000,"growth":737698.12,"balance":1593698.12,"reached":true}],"scheduleTruncated":false},"drivers":[{"key":"saving","label":"Saved each month","step":500,"yearsDelta":-1.71,"targetDelta":0,"sentence":"Each $500 more a month gets you there 1.7 years sooner."},{"key":"swr","label":"Withdrawal rate","step":0.5,"yearsDelta":-1.59,"targetDelta":-166666.67,"sentence":"Each 0.5 points of withdrawal rate gets you there 1.6 years sooner. The number itself falls to $1,333,333. That is a change in risk, not in saving."},{"key":"rate","label":"Real return","step":1,"yearsDelta":-1.57,"targetDelta":0,"sentence":"Each point of real return gets you there 1.6 years sooner."},{"key":"spending","label":"Annual spending in retirement","step":5000,"yearsDelta":1.11,"targetDelta":125000,"sentence":"Each $5,000 a year more of retirement spending pushes the date out 1.1 years. The number itself rises to $1,625,000."},{"key":"balance","label":"Invested today","step":25000,"yearsDelta":-0.6,"targetDelta":0,"sentence":"Each $25,000 you already have gets you there 0.6 years sooner."}],"sensitivity":{"bySwr":[{"swr":3,"multiple":33.33,"target":2000000,"years":24.29,"success30y":100},{"swr":3.5,"multiple":28.57,"target":1714285.71,"years":22.03,"success30y":null},{"swr":4,"multiple":25,"target":1500000,"years":20.16,"success30y":98},{"swr":5,"multiple":20,"target":1200000,"years":17.21,"success30y":83}],"bySavingsRate":[{"savingsRate":10,"years":50.93},{"savingsRate":15,"years":42.43},{"savingsRate":20,"years":36.34},{"savingsRate":25,"years":31.57},{"savingsRate":30,"years":27.64},{"savingsRate":40,"years":21.35},{"savingsRate":50,"years":16.37},{"savingsRate":60,"years":12.22},{"savingsRate":70,"years":8.63}],"bySaving":[{"saving":0,"years":55.5},{"saving":1000,"years":33.2},{"saving":2000,"years":24.9},{"saving":3000,"years":20.16},{"saving":5000,"years":14.76},{"saving":10000,"years":8.96}],"byRate":[{"rate":0,"years":38.89},{"rate":2,"years":27.69},{"rate":4,"years":22.08},{"rate":5,"years":20.16},{"rate":6,"years":18.59},{"rate":8,"years":16.17}]},"assumptions":[{"key":"spending","label":"Annual spending in retirement","value":60000,"unit":"usd-per-year","provided":false,"source":null},{"key":"swr","label":"Withdrawal rate","value":4,"unit":"percent","provided":false,"source":{"id":"trinity-1998","name":"Cooley, Hubbard and Walz, AAII Journal, February 1998","url":"https://www.aaii.com/journal/199802/feature.pdf","asOf":"1998-02-01","note":"The Trinity study, \"Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable\". Three finance professors at Trinity University ran withdrawal rates of 3% to 12% against 1926 to 1995 returns for payout periods of 15, 20, 25 and 30 years and five stock and bond mixes, and reported the share of historical windows in which the money lasted. TRINITY_30Y on this page is its Table 3, inflation-adjusted, 30 year row. The study makes no adjustment for taxes or transaction costs, and a success rate is a count of past windows, not a probability for yours."}},{"key":"balance","label":"Invested today","value":100000,"unit":"usd","provided":false,"source":null},{"key":"saving","label":"Saved each month","value":3000,"unit":"usd-per-month","provided":false,"source":null},{"key":"rate","label":"Real return","value":5,"unit":"percent","provided":false,"source":null},{"key":"step","label":"Extra saving to price","value":500,"unit":"usd-per-month","provided":false,"source":null},{"key":"age","label":"Your age","value":32,"unit":"count","provided":false,"source":null}],"sources":[{"id":"trinity-1998","name":"Cooley, Hubbard and Walz, AAII Journal, February 1998","url":"https://www.aaii.com/journal/199802/feature.pdf","asOf":"1998-02-01","note":"The Trinity study, \"Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable\". Three finance professors at Trinity University ran withdrawal rates of 3% to 12% against 1926 to 1995 returns for payout periods of 15, 20, 25 and 30 years and five stock and bond mixes, and reported the share of historical windows in which the money lasted. TRINITY_30Y on this page is its Table 3, inflation-adjusted, 30 year row. The study makes no adjustment for taxes or transaction costs, and a success rate is a count of past windows, not a probability for yours."},{"id":"medicare-65","name":"Medicare.gov, Get started with Medicare","url":"https://www.medicare.gov/basics/get-started-with-medicare","asOf":"2026-08-22","note":"Medicare.gov states that \"Medicare is health insurance for people 65 or older who meet citizenship or residency requirements.\" That age is where this page closes the healthcare gap it reports; it does not price the years before it."}],"warnings":[{"code":"healthcare-gap","message":"You reach the number at 52.2, which leaves 12.8 years before Medicare at 65. Health insurance for those years is a real cost this calculator does not price; put your own estimate into the spending field."},{"code":"long-retirement","message":"Stopping at 52.2 could mean a retirement much longer than the 30 year payout period the 1998 Trinity study tested, which is its longest. Planning to 90, which is this page's assumption and not a life expectancy figure, that is 38 years, and nothing here prices the difference."}],"disclaimer":"This divides the spending you enter by the withdrawal rate you choose and compounds a balance at a real return you choose. It is arithmetic, not a forecast, a safety guarantee, or investment advice. It does not model taxes, healthcare before Medicare, the order in which returns arrive, or spending that changes across a retirement."}