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How much estimated tax do I pay each quarter?

Expected income, withholding, and last year's total tax to the four 2026 quarterly payments and the safe harbor that stops the underpayment penalty. This runs a real return engine for 2026 and then applies 26 U.S.C. § 6654 to it, so the 100% or 110% safe harbor is chosen for you from your own prior-year AGI rather than left as a rule to look up. Federal only, and the same answer is available as JSON.

Published · 2026-08-22Updated · 2026-08-22By Tejas Shah, Co-founderModel · Form 1040-ES, tax year 2026

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How each quarterly payment is built

Start with the year, not the quarter. At the inputs above, $120,000 of expected self-employment profit filing single, the engine projects a real 2026 Form 1040: half the self-employment tax comes off as an adjustment, leaving $111,522 of adjusted gross income, then the standard deduction of $16,100 leaves $95,422 of taxable income and $15,706 of income tax. Self-employment tax of $16,955 is added on top, because nobody withheld Social Security and Medicare for you. Total tax for the year: $32,661.

Then the law asks for less than all of it. The required annual payment is the lesser of 90% of this year's tax, $29,395, and 100% of your 2025 tax, $26,000. Here that is $26,000. Expected withholding of $0 comes off next, leaving $26,000 for the four installments to carry, which is $6,500 each.

That last division is the whole schedule under the standard method: four equal installments, 25% of the requirement each, with the odd cent landing on the early quarters. The alternative, the annualized income installment method, prices each period on the income you actually earned in it and is worth using if your income is lumpy. This calculator does not compute it, and says so below rather than pretending the even split is always right.

The safe harbor is what actually stops the penalty

The underpayment penalty is not charged on being wrong about the year. It is charged on paying less than the required annual payment, and the required annual payment is capped by last year's tax, a number you already know exactly. That is the asymmetry worth exploiting: pay 100% of your 2025 tax and the penalty is off the table even if this year doubles. You will owe the difference in April, but you will owe it without interest for the underpayment.

Which leg binds depends on the direction your year is moving. A year that is growing takes the prior-year leg: at the inputs above, $29,395 is 90% of this year's projection and $26,000 was last year's whole tax bill, so the requirement is the smaller $26,000. A year that is shrinking takes the other one. A single filer whose 2025 tax was $45,000 but who expects only $60,000 of profit this year owes $12,991, so 90% of it is $11,692 against a prior-year test of $49,500. The calculator takes the $2,923 quarterly payment, not the $12,375 one.

The cheaper leg is also the riskier one. The 90% test moves with your actual income, so if the year comes in above your estimate the target rises underneath you and payments made on old assumptions fall short. The prior-year leg is fixed the day you file last year's return. When the calculator selects the current-year leg it says so in a warning under the answer.

When the safe harbor is 110% instead of 100%

This is the detail most quarterly tax calculators leave to the reader. Above an AGI line, § 6654(d)(1)(C) raises the prior-year safe harbor from 100% of last year's tax to 110% of it. The line is $150,000 of prior-year adjusted gross income for every status except married filing separately, where it is $75,000. It is a cliff, not a phase-in. One dollar of AGI decides it.

2025 AGISafe harbor usedRequired for the yearEach quarter
$100,000100% of your 2025 tax$26,000$6,500
$150,000100% of your 2025 tax$26,000$6,500
$150,001110% of your 2025 tax$28,600$7,150
$200,000110% of your 2025 tax$28,600$7,150

Same expected income, same 2025 tax bill of $26,000, same filing status. At $100,000 of prior-year AGI the requirement is $26,000 and each payment is $6,500. At $150,001, one dollar over the line, the requirement is $28,600 and each payment is $7,150, a difference of $650 every quarter. A reader who paid 100% because an article told them 100% is the rule would be short $2,600 for the year and exposed to the penalty they were trying to avoid.

Filing status moves this line too, which is why the calculator prices all five. On the inputs above, a 2025 AGI of $93,000 sits under the $150,000 threshold for every status except married filing separately, where the threshold is $75,000 and the same taxpayer owes $7,150 a quarter instead of $6,500.

The four dates, and what missing one costs

Apr 15, 2026, Jun 15, 2026, Sep 15, 2026, Jan 15, 2027. Two things about that list surprise people. The periods are not equal: the second covers two months, not three. And the last one falls in the following calendar year, which means the final payment for 2026 is due Jan 15, 2027, before you file the return it belongs to.

The penalty is computed per period, not on the year. Paying nothing until December and then sending the whole $26,000 does not undo a missed Apr 15, 2026 payment: interest runs on each shortfall from its own due date. That is the practical reason the schedule below shows four separate amounts rather than one annual figure.

Withholding is the exception, and it is a useful one. Federal income tax withheld from a paycheck is treated as paid evenly across the year no matter when it was actually withheld, so raising withholding late in the year can repair an early shortfall in a way an estimated payment cannot. If you have any W-2 income at all, a new Form W-4 is often a better fix than a catch-up payment.

When you owe no estimated tax at all

There is a floor. Under § 6654(e)(1) no estimated tax is required if your expected tax for the year, after withholding and refundable credits, is under $1,000. A single filer with $6,000 of profit and no withholding owes $848, almost all of it self-employment tax, since the standard deduction of $16,100 wipes out the income tax entirely. That is under the floor, so this calculator returns $0 for all four quarters and tells you why rather than asking for $191 a quarter you do not owe.

There is a second exception the calculator does not need an input for: § 6654(e)(2) excuses you if you had no tax liability at all last year, on a return that covered a full twelve months, and you were a citizen or resident for the whole year. Leaving the 2025 total tax at zero here removes the prior-year safe harbor rather than claiming that exception, because the two are different questions and only your return answers the second one.

What this estimated tax calculator does not know

The penalty itself. This page names the amount that avoids the penalty; it does not compute the penalty you already owe. The engine is explicit about that limit rather than silent: "Filing-grade underpayment penalty computation is blocked until final TY2026 Form 2210, FTB 5805, or New York penalty support is packeted.". If you have already missed a payment, the figure you need comes from Form 2210, not from here.

Uneven income. The schedule above assumes four equal installments. If your income arrives in bursts, a summer contract or a December close, the annualized income installment method prices each period on what you actually earned in it and usually asks for less early in the year. The engine refuses that method by name rather than approximating it, so this page does not offer it as an input.

Farmers and fishers, who get their own schedule under § 6654(i), one installment instead of four. State and local estimated tax, which California and New York both require on their own dates and their own safe harbors. And anything past a Schedule C profit plus W-2 wages on the standard deduction: capital gains, rental income, retirement distributions, itemized deductions, and the qualified business income deduction all change the 2026 tax this schedule is built on. 2026 has no certified annual forms yet, so the projected return is computed on the current-law parameter set for the year and is planning-grade, not filing-grade. None of it is tax advice.

For agents and scripts

This calculator is built to be used without a browser. Every input is a query parameter on this page, and the same parameters on the JSON twin return the complete answer as a document.

GET /tools/estimated-taxes.json?income=200000&priorTax=40000&priorAgi=185000

The response carries inputs after parsing and clamping, result with the quarterly installment, the selected safeHarbor with the basis the statute dispatched to, installments with each due date, required amount, credited payments and shortfall, the required annual payment before and after withholding, the projected form1040 lines behind the expected tax, plus sensitivity across an income ladder, a prior-year AGI ladder that straddles the 110% threshold, and all five filing statuses, and the engine's own diagnostics and nonClaims, drivers ranked by effect with a plain sentence each, assumptions that say for every field whether you supplied it and name the source when the default came from one, sources with a URL and an as-of date for each source the tool cites, which is an empty list on the calculators whose every default is an example input rather than a published figure, warnings, a disclaimer, and in tool the canonicalUrl and jsonUrl that carry only your non-default parameters. The canonical URL is the answer's permanent address; use it when you cite the number.

Parameters, all optional, in any order:

  • income ($ per year), default $120,000 per year.
  • withholding ($ per year), default $0 per year.
  • priorTax ($ per year), default $26,000 per year.
  • priorAgi ($ per year), default $93,000 per year.
  • wages ($ per year), default $0 per year.
  • paid ($ per year), default $0 per year.
  • status (one of single, married-joint, married-separate, head-of-household, qualifying-surviving-spouse), default single.

Values accept plain numbers and loose human formats such as 100k, $100,000, or 6.5%. Unknown parameters are ignored, values outside a field's range are clamped and reported in warnings, and the endpoint never fails on bad input. Responses are cacheable for a day; the defaults change when their sources publish, and tool.version changes when the method does.

Common questions

How much estimated tax should I pay each quarter in 2026?

Enough to hit your safe harbor, divided by four. At the inputs above, $120,000 of expected self-employment profit filing single, the year's projected tax is $32,661. The law asks for the lesser of 90% of that ($29,395) and 100% of your 2025 tax ($26,000), so the requirement is $26,000 and each quarterly payment is $6,500. Pay that on all four dates and the underpayment penalty cannot apply, even if the year turns out bigger than you expected.

What are the 2026 quarterly tax due dates?

Apr 15, 2026, Jun 15, 2026, Sep 15, 2026, Jan 15, 2027. They are not evenly spaced and they are not calendar quarters. The first covers January through March, the second covers only April and May, the third covers June through August, and the fourth covers September through December but is not due until January of the following year. Missing one is not fixed by paying double next time: the penalty is computed per period, so a late Q1 accrues from Apr 15, 2026 even if the year ends fully paid.

What is the safe harbor for estimated tax payments?

It is the amount that makes the underpayment penalty impossible regardless of what you actually end up owing. Under 26 U.S.C. § 6654(d)(1)(B) it is the lesser of 90% of this year's tax and 100% of last year's total tax. Under § 6654(d)(1)(C) that second figure becomes 110% of last year's tax if your 2025 adjusted gross income was over $150,000, or over $75,000 on a separate return. This calculator picks the leg that applies to you from the AGI you enter rather than describing the rule, so the number on screen is the one to pay.

Do I have to pay estimated taxes if I also have a W-2 job?

Often not, and that is worth knowing before you set up four payments. Withholding counts toward the same requirement estimated payments do, and it counts as paid evenly across the year no matter which month it came out. So raising withholding on a Form W-4 in October still fixes a shortfall from March, which an estimated payment in October does not. At the inputs above, another $5,000 withheld cuts each quarterly payment by $1,250. If withholding covers the whole requirement, the four payments go to zero.

What happens if I owe less than $1,000?

Nothing is due quarterly. 26 U.S.C. § 6654(e)(1) waives the requirement entirely when your expected tax after withholding and refundable credits comes to less than $1,000. A single filer with $6,000 of profit and no withholding owes $848 for the year, which is under the floor, so this calculator returns $0 for every quarter and says why. You still pay the balance when you file; you just do not owe it in installments and there is no penalty to avoid.

Can an agent or a script use this calculator?

Yes, and it is the same computation the page runs. Every input is a query parameter, and the same parameters on /tools/estimated-taxes.json return the full answer as JSON: the parsed inputs, each installment with its due date and shortfall, the selected safe harbor and the leg it beat, the projected Form 1040 line walk, drivers, sensitivity across income, prior-year AGI, and all five filing statuses, the engine's own diagnostics and non-claims, assumptions with their sources, and warnings. The page itself reads that endpoint, so the agent surface cannot quietly drift from the human one.

Sources

These are the authorities the engine itself reports, not citations chosen after the fact. The installment plan cites Form 1040-ES and Publication 505 for every payment it prices; the projected 2026 return cites the revenue procedure and the statute that set this year's rates and standard deduction. When the engine loads a different parameter set, this list changes with it.

Want the number for your actual finances?

Carlo is a personal finance agent. It knows your accounts, debts, and goals, so instead of a projection from the profit you typed it can watch what you actually invoice and withhold through the year, and tell you before each of those four dates whether the payment you set in April is still the right one. Text it the question.

ask carlo anything(415) 376-5678

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Written by Tejas Shah, Co-founder, Engineering. Building Carlo, the financial model that begins with the decision you're actually weighing. Previously engineering leadership across fintech and consumer startups.

This computes federal estimated tax for tax year 2026: the required annual payment under 26 U.S.C. § 6654 and the four equal installments that satisfy it. It assumes the standard deduction and the standard installment method. It does not compute state or local estimated tax, the annualized-income installment method for uneven income, the farmer and fisher schedule, or the Form 2210 underpayment penalty itself, and it is not tax advice. Check anything that matters against your own return.